美联储议息会议笔记：利率水平不变

摘要

• 本次会议，美联储保持利率水平不变。

• 会议声明中仅有一处重大变化，即从上次会议的通胀下降的过程“缺乏进展”（a lack of further progress）变为了（modest further progress），以体现昨天刚刚公布的通胀数据（CPI）改善。

• QT Taper本月落地。

• 经济预测的整体变化不显著，其中值得注意的是通胀预测小幅上调，且由于5月PCE通胀数据已经公布为2.8%，故此次预测调整给人一种通胀改善已经达标的错觉。
  

• 利率点阵图兑现了此前3月点阵图中的“上行风险”，有15位委员认为年内该降息，对降息一次还是两次存分歧。

• 长期利率预测连续两次季末会议上调，体现联储官员对长期利率中枢水平预期的微妙变化，但鲍威尔在发布会问答中淡化了这一变化的重要性。

• 发布会中的鸽派偏见感（Dovish Bias）明显弱化，主因依然是此前公布的CPI数据改变了发布会的观感和基调，通胀数据的改善让鲍威尔显得更加游刃有余。

• 美股市场保持了通胀数据公布后的涨势但随后小幅跳水，美债收益率及美元指数则在大跌后回升。

• 笔者认为，联储或许会在今年8月的杰克逊霍尔会议上明确下半年降息的条件，届时鲍威尔也将获得更多充分的通胀数据支持。
  

图：鲍威尔的紫色领带花纹变了，以体现modest further progress，从左至右为今年上半年的四次会议。

图：通胀数据的改善让鲍威尔松了一口气，也改变了整个发布会的基调与氛围。

声明原文（粗体为关键变化）

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee's 2 percent inflation objective.

最近的指标表明，经济活动继续以稳健的步伐扩张。就业增长依然强劲，失业率保持低位。通货膨胀在过去一年中有所缓解，但仍处于高位。近几个月来，在实现委员会2%的通胀目标方面取得了适度的进一步进展。

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals have moved toward better balance over the past year. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

委员会力求在长时期内实现充分就业和2%的通胀目标。委员会判断，在过去一年中，实现就业目标和通胀目标的风险已趋于更好的平衡。经济前景不明朗，委员会仍高度关注通胀风险。

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

为支持其目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在5.25%-5.5%的区间不变。在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行任何调整时，委员会将仔细评估收到的数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平衡。委员会预计，在对通胀率持续向2%迈进有更强的信心之前，不宜降息。此外，委员会将继续减持国债、机构债务和机构抵押贷款支持证券。委员会坚定地致力于将通胀率恢复到2%的目标。

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

在评估货币政策的适当立场时，委员会将继续监测所收到的信息对经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险，委员会将准备酌情调整货币政策的立场。委员会的评估将考虑广泛的信息，包括对劳动力市场状况、通胀压力和通胀预期以及金融和国际发展的解读。

点阵图与经济预测

伴随通胀预测的小幅上调，利率预测同样上调。

长期利率预测继3月上调后，本次会议继续上调0.2%的水平。

年内降息1次（7位） vs 降息2次（8位）

一些有趣的发布会细节

再次重复风险平衡的管理姿态

We know that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of the progress we've seen on inflation.  At the same time, reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. 

我们知道，过早或过度减少政策紧缩可能会导致通胀方面的进展出现逆转；与此同时，过晚或过少地减少政策紧缩可能会过度削弱经济活动和就业。

联储的利率预测体现了刚刚更新的经济数据吗？

Data came out, I think it happened a couple meetings ago, a few meetings ago.  So when that happens, when there's an important data print during the meeting, first day or second day, what we do is we make sure people remember that they have the ability to update, we tell them how to do that, and some people do, some people don't.  Most people don't.  And I'm not going to get into the specifics.  But you have the ability to do that, so that what's in the SEP actually does reflect the data that we got today, to the extent you can reflect it in one day.

联储官员会在数据实时更新后调整自己当天的SEP预测！只是大多数人（most）不会这么做。

回答记者有关长期利率预测被连续调高的问题

But I want to remember to point out that long run neutral rate of interest is a long run concept.  It really is a theoretical concept, it can't be directly observed, and what it is is the interest rate that would hold the economy at equilibrium, maximum employment and price stability, for potentially years in the future where there are no shocks, so it's a little bit -- it's not something we observe today.

But back to your original question, people have been gradually writing it up because I just think people are coming it the view that rates aren't going to -- are less likely to go down to their prepandemic levels, which were very low by recent history measures.

强调长期均衡利率水平不可观测，但也直言很多官员确实认为利率回不到疫情前的历史性低位水平了。

回答有关25bp降息管什么用的问题

I think if you know, if you look back in five or ten years, and try to pull out the significance to the US Economy of one twenty five basis point rate cut, you'd have quite a job on your hands. So that's not how we look at it. You know, really the whole rate path matters, and I do continue to think that when you know, when we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in a significant loosening in financial market conditions, and the market will price in what it prices in, I don't I have no way of saying we're not at that stage, so I don't know.

回看过去的历史你如果想分解出25bp降息的作用恐怕很难，但我认为启动宽松会体现在金融市场环境（泛宽松）上，市场会定价。

（此处笔者打个问号，事实上金融环境的放松和相关定价需要的是持续的前瞻指引和宽松承诺，如果降息周期未来也变得颠簸——比如降息的同时没能带来进一步降息的信号，那么市场在当时当刻如何定价更多的宽松？）

回答有关通胀压力到底在哪儿的问题

You know, in some parts of non housing services, you see elevated inflation still, and that's probably to do with it could be to do with wages, goods, prices have kind of fluctuated. There's been a surprising increase in import prices on goods, which is kind of hard to understand and, you know, may we've taken some signal from that, but you know, and of course, housing services, you're seeing, you're continuing to see high readings there.

鲍威尔认为服务业（包括住房与非住房）值得警惕，工资也偏高。

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